In this article: Time Periods, Revenue Categories, What is NRR?, How Forecasts Are Generated
Magnify’s Revenue Forecast provides a comprehensive view of both historical and AI-generated Net Revenue Retention (NRR) data, covering Renewals, Expansion, and Churn.
Time Periods
The forecast is organized into three time periods:
Current Quarter QTD (Quarter-to-Date)
Historical actuals for the current quarter based on closed revenue records. This reflects what has already happened — revenue that has been recognized through renewals, expansions, and churns to date.
Current Quarter Remainder
AI-generated forecasts for revenue expected during the remainder of the current quarter. Each open revenue record (typically an opportunity) receives an individual Forecasted Closed Amount, representing the AI’s judgment on what that record will close at.
Next Quarter
AI-generated forecasts for the full next quarter, also based on per-record forecast judgments.
Revenue Definitions
Renewal Revenue
The portion of closed revenue up to the account's Available to Renew (ATR) amount. Renewal Revenue can never exceed ATR. If an account with $100K ATR renews at $100K, all $100K is Renewal Revenue. If it renews at $90K, the $90K is Renewal Revenue (with the remaining $10K shortfall categorized as Churn). If it renews at $110K, $100K is Renewal Revenue (with the $10K above ATR categorized as Expansion).
Expansion Revenue
The portion of closed revenue that exceeds the account's ATR. Expansion Revenue exists when an account's total closed amount is greater than its ATR, or when a net-new opportunity is closed for the account (non-renewal). This can result from upselling, cross-selling, upgrades, or price increases.
Churn Revenue
The portion of ATR that was not closed as Renewal Revenue. Churn represents the gap between an account's ATR and its actual renewed amount. This includes full churn (the entire ATR goes unrenewed), as well as partial churn from downgrades, cancellations, or reduced renewals.
These categories are not mutually exclusive per account. A single account can generate Renewal Revenue and Churn (partial renewal) or Renewal Revenue and Expansion (renewal plus growth) in the same period.
What is NRR?
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) is the percentage of revenue retained from existing customers over a given period after expansion revenue and churn (and downgrade) revenue have been accounted for.
How Forecasts Are Generated
Magnify’s AI generates forecasts at the individual revenue record (typically an opportunity) level. Each revenue record — whether a renewal, expansion, or new business opportunity — receives its own Forecasted Closed Amount. This per-record approach provides:
- Granularity: Forecasts are specific to each revenue record rather than aggregate estimates across segments
- Auditability: Each forecast judgment can be traced to a specific record, making it easy to understand and validate
- Accuracy: By evaluating each record individually, the AI accounts for the unique circumstances of each opportunity
The revenue metrics displayed on the dashboard (Closed/Forecast Renewals, Churn, Expansion, and Net Revenue) are then computed by aggregating these individual record-level forecasts across the relevant time period.
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